Vladimir Putin’s first steps in domestic politics after winning the presidential election will be related to the implementation of the message to the Federal Assembly and the formation of a new team, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “A new team that will go further. This is the Cabinet of Ministers, and the presidential administration, “the representative of the Kremlin outlined. Putin himself several times used the phrase “new government”. At the same time, political analysts and experts do not venture to guess which of the current ministers will keep the portfolio, who will go to increase, and who will resign: the observer assumes, and the president disposes. Who with a certain degree of probability can point to the door, dealt with “Lenta.ru.”
The government will inevitably change – the law obliges it. It is a question of technical resignation after the inauguration, which will be held on May 7. According to Art. 35 of the law “On the Government of the Russian Federation”, the Cabinet of Ministers resigns on the day the new president takes office. Then the head of state will have to submit to the State Duma a nomination of a new prime minister within two weeks, and he will propose his team to the president within a week.
In 2012, Vladimir Putin, when he returned to the presidency, nominated Dmitry Medvedev for the Duma. The deputies agreed without hesitation. The backbone of the new administration was built by Putin from ministers and government officials with whom he worked in the White House since 2008. Medvedev on the contrary – he moved the team from the Kremlin to the Krasnopresnenskaya embankment. So, Andrei Fursenko, who worked as Minister of Education and Science in Putin’s government, became an assistant to President Putin. A presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich became vice-premier in the cabinet of ministers Medvedev. Appointments were held until May 21.
Medvedev was “dismissed” for countless times. Not only in the media and in the expert community – hackers joined the kind of flash mob. In August 2014, unknown cybercriminals attacked the Prime Minister’s account on Twitter. “I resign. Shame on the actions of the government. Excuse me … I will become a free photographer. I dreamed for a long time, “- from such a record around 10 am Medvedev’s fake monologue began. In an hour all tweets were deleted. The press service of the government promptly confirmed to journalists the fact of breaking the prime minister’s account.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev
Dmitry Medvedev ignored these rumors, and did not comment on his career intentions at all. The very next day after the presidential election, he asked his subordinates to ensure the smooth functioning of the economy and the social sphere before the inauguration. The observers, confident that they will say goodbye to Medvedev, send him on two routes: to Gazprom and to the Supreme Court. That is, in any case – in his native St. Petersburg.
Who, if not Medvedev, can lead a new government? The chairman of the Bank of Russia is Elvira Nabiullina, the mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov. And, of course, the name of Alexei Kudrin is traditional. Such an appointment would be cruel to Medvedev: in 2011, he scandalously dismissed Kudrin as finance minister. The entire country watched in the TV stories behind Kudrin’s face: he looked at Medvedev with a sneer. On the proposal to resign with a challenge, he answered: “I will make a decision, having consulted with the Prime Minister [that is, with Putin].” “You can consult anyone, but as long as I am a president, I make such decisions myself,” Medvedev became even more angry.
So, soon after the presidential election Kudrin wrote an article for the newspaper Kommersant, in which he talked about the future government. According to Kudrin, the Cabinet will have only two years to implement the agenda of changes – “not even a window of opportunity, but a window leaf.” In the course of these two years, everything that has been postponed over the past few years due to the upcoming elections and various excuses must be done, the main one being “these measures are unpopular,” Kudrin said.
Shortly after the election, RTVI posted information on the possible resignation of Lavrov: referring to sources in the Foreign Ministry, the media reported that it is no secret for anyone in the Russian foreign affairs department that his head “wanted to leave for a long time,” and only at the request of Vladimir Putin stayed on his post before the presidential elections. Sources also note that Lavrov can take some honorable post. In this case, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova, commenting on the information, replied in a streamlined way: “If it depended on me … but it does not depend on me. There is a president, there are corresponding procedures. I’m just not able to answer this question. “
Lavrov has been working as foreign minister for 14 years. We say the Foreign Ministry – we mean Lavrov, he is one of the most popular Russian ministers. His phrases differed in quotations, his portraits became a print on souvenir T-shirts, his ability to wear a suit – an example for all colleagues. But such work is the strongest tension, both physical and moral, especially in the last four years – after the annexation of the Crimea.
The question of Lavrov’s resignation with an honorable transfer – for example, to the Security Council of Russia – was discussed for a long time. Among the contenders for his place most often called the press secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov: the same involvement in international politics, publicity, the ability to communicate with the press. And, finally, Peskov – a native of the Foreign Ministry.
Another contender for the place of Lavrov, in the opinion of political scientists, is Alexander Grushko. In January, he was appointed Deputy Foreign Minister, has extensive experience in negotiations with Western partners, and in recent years has represented Russia with NATO. Alexander Grushko’s work as the ambassador has just happened to a deep crisis in relations between Russia and the North Atlantic alliance, which arose against the backdrop of the Ukrainian conflict.
If anyone knew that the last year of 2017 was the Year of Ecology, then surely no one noticed a change. The head of the Ministry of Natural Resources Sergei Donskoi is expected to be dismissed in connection with an objectively huge ball of environmental problems. All the scandals associated with the landfills, with the regime of the black sky over Krasnoyarsk and, finally, with the draft bill on the protection of animals drowned in the depths of the State Duma – all this is the land of the Ministry of Natural Resources.
In November 2017, against the backdrop of a loud story with the Moscow “Kuchino” dump near Moscow, Putin instructed the minister to finally put things in order in the sphere of waste utilization around big cities. Of course, it is not necessary to talk about any final decision: neither was it decided with the “Kuchino”, and a new trouble was added – “Yadrovo”. Not only that the long-suffering bill on the protection of animals has not been adopted, there was also a strange story with a new edition of the Red Book. From there disappeared remaining under threat of species of animals – in particular, the snow sheep and the Himalayan bear, fine objects for currency hunting.
The resignation threatens the Minister of Transport Maxim Sokolov. Last autumn, after the bankruptcy of VIM-Avia, he received a public disciplinary sanction from the president. Putin criticized the criteria of the Ministry of Transport, which did not allow the timely detection of problems in the activities of VIM-Avia: “If you worked out such criteria, then what are they worth?” The government’s deputy prime minister, Arkady Dvorkovich, supervising transport also got out. “You do not pay enough attention to this industry. Maybe you are overloaded too? “- Putin asked.
A few years ago a similar story happened with the abolition of commuter trains. After the government abolished state subsidies for suburban passenger companies, in some regions the number of suburban trains fell sharply and tariffs increased. “The train stopped to go to the regions – are you crazy?” – the president was indignant at the meeting, turning to Dvorkovich. Shortly thereafter, the Minister of Transport reported on the resumption of the work of electric trains on 300 routes.
After the tragedy in Kemerovo, they again started talking about the possible resignation of the Minister for Civil Defense, Emergency Situations and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters of Vladimir Puchkov. There are a lot of questions to fire supervision – so, the officers of this service are detained for bribes every year.
There is in the current Cabinet surprisingly stable minister – it’s Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky. At various times, the media tried to announce his resignation. Among the possible changers were the president’s adviser on culture Vladimir Tolstoy, State Duma deputy Elena Yampolskaya and even Natalia Timakov, the press secretary of the prime minister. But Medina is still in her chair and obviously does not intend to leave. It seems that the same point of view is held in the Kremlin: Medinsky is not only criticized, but is regularly praised. And it clearly satisfies all the interests of the Kremlin.
At the end of last year, the St. Petersburg Policy Foundation published an analytical report on its website, in which it distributed the members of the government on their public images. Head of the Ministry of Education and Science Olga Vasilyeva and Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Mutko became “allergens” for public opinion. Often, the resignation of such figures is postponed for the sake of a greater image effect when replaced.
The public image of Vasilyeva is firmly connected with the introduction of the lessons of Orthodoxy and morality in schools. Mutko was hostage to the contrast between the propaganda of the “former greatness of Soviet sport” and the humiliation of Russian athletes.
The career of “heavyweights” – the heads of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu – is largely due to the overall configuration at the top by May 2018. By the way, already now, according to sources, it is said about a possible merger of the Ministry of Industry and Energy and the Ministry of Energy into a single agency within the framework of the formation of a new government.
The head of the Ministry of Communications Nikolai Nikiforov and the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin are symbols of personnel rejuvenation.
In discussions about which minister leaves and who remains, there is no sense, the president of the communication holding “Minchenko Consulting” Yevgeny Minchenko is sure. “This will be a great solitaire, which includes the government, regional leaders, the leadership of large corporations and non-governmental structures. Therefore, all these fortune-telling on the coffee grounds do not make much sense. Moreover, the surnames are unprincipled – the balance within Politburo 2.0 (the “close circle” structure of Vladimir Putin – approx. “Lentee.ru”). In general, will the system of curators in the person of leaders of large elite groups remain, “the expert says.
In his opinion, even Putin can not describe the configuration. The president is still laying out this solitaire. The issue with the chairman of the government has not been resolved – in spite of the fact that Medvedev remains a favorite, he can not guarantee the preservation of the premiership.
“Permutations, of course, will be,” said Alexei Makarkin, leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. He distinguishes two main intrigues: the first – who will lead the government. “With the chairmanship there are options for development. Inertial – the preservation of Medvedev, a man absolutely understandable, predictable and reliable for Putin. Another option is an unexpected appointment, as was the case with Mikhail Fradkov (chairman of the government from 2004 to 2007) or Viktor Zubkov (chairman of the government from September 2007 to May 2008). And the option under the fashionable name of “technocrat”: he is doing the work that he was instructed and, perhaps, closer to the parliamentary elections, “says Makarkin.
The second intrigue is not in the personalities, but in the tasks of the new government. Unpopular reforms – the same increase in retirement age – were postponed until the presidential election. Now it’s time to implement them. Even Medvedev admitted that the issue is overdue.
The figure, which will take responsibility for this, will leave behind a people’s long negative trail in memory. And the remaining ministers will envy the departed.