On the road wheels electric cars and drones of the Russian assembly, and their sales annually grow by 40-50%, – the Russian government sees this in seven years. But the lag from the world market for 4-5 years will not go anywhere.
The government of the Russian Federation approved the strategy for the development of the automobile industry until 2025. The document, published on May 4 on the website of the Cabinet, sets ambitious goals for the market, which only last year began to recover after the crisis. And there is no consensus on whether the described bright future will become a reality, the market participants do not.
The demand for new cars, which again began to grow in 2017 after a four-year recession, according to the authors of the strategy, will continue to grow. In seven years, sales of cars will grow by almost one and a half times – from 1.5 million cars in 2017 to 2.23 million in 2025. This is still less than the historical high of 2012 (2.8 million units), but Russians should almost completely change from foreign cars to domestic cars.
To this end, Russian plants will have to increase production by 65% (to 2.21 million per year) and satisfy “80-90% of domestic demand for modern automotive equipment.” The localization should also be strengthened: from the conveyor belt Russian vehicles must go 70-85%.
The idea of seizing international markets, as two years ago Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev called for, was also not forgotten. Under the basic scenario of supplying Russian cars abroad by 2025, they will triple – up to 269 thousand units (12% of all issued cars). But this is not enough, the document says. Such growth rates do not allow to achieve the “necessary economies of scale”, and also protect the industry from “future negative external impacts”. Which exactly is not specified. But the development of exports should be a priority, according to the authors of the strategy.
Finally, the domestic car industry will have to bring to market fundamentally new products by the year 2025 – electric cars and unmanned vehicles. The growth rates that the authors of the global plan are predicted for innovative industries are quite impressive – 40-50% per year. How many will be produced and what the forecast is based on is not specified. It is possible that they were guided by the world’s most famous manufacturer of electric vehicles – American Tesla, which increased its revenue by 52% last year, although it lost 1.4 billion dollars.
To stimulate the emergence of domestic Ilonov Maskov, the government is going to create “technological consortia that will consolidate the efforts of the state, automakers, information and telecommunications companies, scientific, engineering and public organizations.”
But the government does not expect too much rapid development of this market. “Targeted vision <…> implies a gap from the global growth rates of the share of electric vehicles in sales by an average of 4-5 years, “the document says. But due to the development of technology by 2025 electric cars will still occupy up to 5% of the Russian car market (85-100 thousand), and unmanned vehicles – 1-2% (20-40 thousand).
Part of the government covenants can be implemented in the near future, market participants say. According to the estimates of Autostat, the share of domestic machines already reached a historical maximum of 82% last year. For comparison: in 2012 – 64.1% of the market, in 2008 – 44.3%. On the hands of producers in many respects played the ruble, which made imports less attractive for the price.
Target sales volumes also do not look too high-strung. For example, Renault expects even higher growth rates than the government. In its strategy, the company reports that sales of cars in Russia will exceed 2.5 million units by 2022 already. In Nissan, their forecast is not disclosed, but note that the declared indicators in the strategy are achievable, if the demand will grow at the same pace as now.
But the automakers themselves are not always able to surpass the figures of the previous year. For example, the St. Petersburg car plants Hyundai, Nissan and Toyota In March, they released 9% less products than in the same month of 2017. At the end of the quarter, output increased by 7%. But maintaining the growth rate is becoming more difficult.
With localization, everything is also ambiguous. According to the respondents "Fontanka" experts, 40% of Russian manufacturers use less than half of domestic parts. One of the obstacles is insufficient sales volumes, in which it is simply not profitable to produce all components. According to manufacturers, the localization will grow, although, perhaps, not at the pace, as officials would like. For example, the launch of the engine assembly in St. Petersburg will allow Hyundai to increase the figure from 50 to 60%, said the director of Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Rus Entek Lee.
The St. Petersburg plant in 2014 promised to increase the share of Russian components to 70% by 2018. I managed to do this, the company does not disclose. But throughout the consortium (Nissan, Renault, Kamaz, Avtovaz) in 2017, localization reached 67%. “We hope that positive trends in the growth of demand in the market will continue, which will allow us to talk about further plans to localize the component base in Russia,” they say cautiously.
The share of exports from Nissan has already reached 8% of the production volume in 2017, which is only a third less than the 12% expected by the Ministry of Industry and Trade. And here at Hyundai abroad only 4% of the collected cars are sent.
But manufacturers still do not believe in the unmanned and electromobile future. In the coming years, electric cars will not be of interest because of the low sales volume, previously reported Managing Director of Hyundai Motor CIS Alexei Kalitsev. And in order to arrange their assembly in Russia, we need state support and infrastructure. For comparison: according to the results of the first quarter of 2018, Russians bought only 16 electric vehicles, of which nine were Nissan Leaf and seven Tesla.
Unmanned technology in Hyundai is also there. “But in order to organize production in St. Petersburg, three conditions must be met: availability of demand, availability of infrastructure and availability of a regulatory framework,” the company commented.
In Nissan also are not ready to risk investments. “At the moment, unfortunately, most of the issues for the development of electric transport and unmanned vehicles have not been solved and require great efforts on the part of all market participants,” the company noted.
The IT giant Yandex believes in the development of unmanned vehicles more, which for several years has been developing in this area. However, the company complained that they can not move forward without testing in urban conditions, which requires a legal framework. While the government has given the go-ahead only to experiment on the big road. Until November 30, the tests should begin on the section of the high-speed highway M-11 “Moscow – St. Petersburg” in the Tver region.
The officials want to stimulate demand for electric cars with the help of preferences for their owners. The State Duma has already introduced an amendment to the Tax Code: it is proposed to release them from payment of the transport tax and give preferences to enterprises that create charging stations. Automakers are following the efforts of the federal authorities, but they are also hoping to support the local authorities.
“The strategy directly does not oblige regional officials to anything, but we hope that they will move in the same direction,” Hyundai said.
Galina Boyarkova, Fontanka.ru