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Park wagons, a significant part of which was rapidly decommissioned in the years of the crisis, returned to their former size: in February-March, it has exceeded 500 thousand pieces. The industry, however, do not think it a sign of surplus. The growth rates for the provision of wagons in the market are explained in different ways, but agree that they will follow the trend of the rolling stock of Russian Railways, the speed and rate of purchase of new and decommissioning of old rolling stock.
According to “Kommersant”, the Park of Gondola cars in Russia (the most common type of cars) returned to the volume of two years ago and in February-March, has exceeded 500 thousand pieces. In the Railways confirmed this figure. The last time this amount of the Park was recorded in March 2016 – by that time he had begun to decline after the entry into force in January. The maximum values of the Park gondolas, according to various estimates, reached at the end of 2014 – early 2015 (560-570 thousand pieces). Then the speculative purchase of the rolling stock, the amid falling traffic, led to the dramatic collapse of the wagons reached in 2015, 400 RUB. per car per day. After the cancellation of almost 215 thousand cars in 2015-2016, the rate went up, reaching the average for 2017 1.4 thousand rubles per car per day, and continued to rise due to a sharp increase in the profitability of the coal traffic. The head of Infoline-Analytics Mikhail Burmistrov said that the profitability of the operating segment is maintained at 2.2-2.4 thousand rubles per day.
In parallel, rising prices for new cars. According to estimates Ipema, for the first quarter of 2018, the price of freight, has grown by 9.3% from the same quarter of 2017. According to forecasts Ipema, the price of rolling stock will continue to rise . The Russian Railways is the first in the world.
Market participants polled by “Kommersant”, disagreed about how to behave in the rate of provision of wagons by the end of 2018. Source “Kommersant” on the market goods falls. Other interlocutor “”, on the contrary, I am sure that by the end of the year, we should expect the adjustments of the rates: in the production of about 30 thousand gondolas salvage in the best case will be 15 thousand, and the rate of loading growth “will not be the same 2017” (according to forecasts of JSC RZD, in 2018 to 1.8-3% vs. 3.2% in 2017). Another informant agrees that as market saturation of new rolling stock prices will be reduced to the level of 1.1 thousand rubles per night in a standard gondola car and the exhaust to 25-30 thousand units a year. Source “b” among the operators said that the fall of the traffic traditionally increases, but by this time the operating fleet of gondola cars will increase by 2-3%, so the market stabiliziruemost and rates can be reduced.
In the Railways, say that the market analysis shows that there is a pricing problem of availability of gondola, especially in the segment of construction materials and other low-yielding cargoes. “All market participants need to work more efficiently with the efficiency of the market”, they say. “There are provisions, such as downtime on the tracks companies, and Cargo owners need to use them. ” They point out that, for its part, Russian Railways, efficiency increases: for three years, precinct the speed is increased by 15%, easy car reduced by almost 25%. Kommersant’s source close to the profile of the Department, says that now the surplus of gondola cars no.
Mikhail Burmistrov, predicted that by the end of April, the Park wagons will amount to 506 thousand units, and by the end of 2018 will exceed 520 thousand cars, which is to September 2015. Throughout 2018, will remain the deficit of the Park, and the limited infrastructure capabilities and limitations for freight traffic during the world Cup, the average speed of movement in the gondolas in 2018 will be less than 5% lower than in 2017, the expert concludes.
Anastasia Vedeneeva, Natalia Skorlygina